BRATTLEBORO -- Every fall for the past seven years, Ambassador Peter Galbraith has come to speak to the Windham World Affairs Council of Vermont about U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
This year, as the Obama administration prepares to make a decision about the future course of its military strategy in Afghanistan, Galbraith’s observations carry extra weight.
Tonight at 7:30 at the Centre Congregational Church on Main Street, Galbraith will give a talk -- "Afghanistan: War of Necessity or Quagmire?" -- and the subject matter will be drawn from his short but turbulent service in that country this year.
In September, Galbraith was recalled from his position as United Nations Deputy Special Representative to Afghanistan by Secretary General Ban Ki Moon over his disagreements with superiors regarding the fraud that occurred in the Aug. 20 presidential elections.
In an interview Wednesday, Galbraith said that the failure of the head of the U.N. mission to take steps to prevent fraud before the Afghan elections and his decision to downplay fraud after the elections helped plunge Afghanistan into a two-month long political crisis.
"The end result is that (Afghan President Hamid) Karzai has been re-elected in circumstances where he is seen as illegitimate by a large segment of the Afghan people and where Americans and others from troop contributing countries see him as irretrievably tainted by fraud," said Galbraith. "The election leaves
Galbraith said that he is "against any increase in U.S. troops in Afghanistan at this time." He believes that for President Obama’s counterinsurgency strategy to work, "the United States needs a credible Afghan partner and, because of the massive electoral fraud, Karzai’s government is not a credible partner. Without a credible local partner, the additional U.S. troops cannot succeed in their mission and therefore should not be sent."
As for the main rationale for U.S. involvement in Afghanistan -- denying a sanctuary for al-Qaida and other terrorist groups -- Galbraith said he believes that dealing with Pakistan should be as much of a priority as bringing stability in Afghanistan.
"Al-Qaida’s top leaders are almost certainly in Pakistan, not Afghanistan," said Galbraith. "Pakistan is clearly much more important strategically with 180 million people and nuclear weapons. But, Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan can destabilize Pakistan. President Obama is right to see both countries as one theater."
Galbraith does admit that bringing stability to Afghanistan has been extremely difficult and that the Obama administration’s attempt to increase civilian assistance to that nation has taken longer to accomplish.
"The worsening military situation does make providing development assistance more difficult," Galbraith said. "But, there is an inherent lag before additional civilian assistance and personnel arrive in the country. People have to be identified, recruited and trained. Projects have to be designed, local partners identified, and supplies procured. So, it is not surprising that Obama’s ‘civilian surge’ is only now beginning to have an effect."
As for the military aspect, Galbraith said he believes the ongoing conflict "is neither winnable nor loseable." He said the Taliban may be effective in battle, but they lack support among most Afghans. Also, Galbraith said there "isn’t a widespread hostility to an international presence" in Afghanistan.
Galbraith is a former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia, and a senior diplomatic fellow at the Center for Arms Control. He is a principal at the Townshend-based Windham Resources Group, which has worked in Iraq. His most recent book is, "Unintended Consequences: How War in Iraq Strengthened America’s Enemies," published in 2008.
Tonight’s talk is free and open to the public. To join the Windham World Affairs Council of Vermont and receive regular mailings of events, send an e-mail to info@windhamworldaffairs.org.
Randolph T. Holhut can be reached at rholhut@reform-er.com, or at 802-254-2311, ext. 160.
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